On the eve of the 2022 Texas primary election, the Texas Citizen Journal is releasing our election results forecast as is customary. The Texas Citizen Journal has been engineering a prediction model, and thus far, we have called 100% of past races correctly. Our proprietary, confidential model analyzes each race based on 11 different data points. The results is a highly reliable, unbiased forecast of the election results.
It should be noted that forecasting a win for any given candidate is not to be considered an endorsement from the Texas Citizen Journal. In fact, the candidates our model predicts will win are not always the candidates personally supported by the editor. The election forecast is released the night before Election Day in order to both gather as much data as possible, and to avoid influencing the outcome.
So, with those clarifications in mind, below are the election outcomes predicted by the Texas Citizen Journal’s forecast model:
Our model predicts that Governor Greg Abbott will win the primary without a runoff. Likely with approximately 60% of the vote, give or take 5%. Abbott has multiple viable challengers from the right, i.e. former state senator Don Huffines, former Republican Party of Texas Chairman Allen West, and entertainer Chad Prather. The challengers have garnered significant support among the activist class, however, all indicators point towards them failing to gain the necessary traction among the broader primary electorate.
Lt. Governor Dan Patrick will win the primary handily, with at least 60% of the vote.
This will be an extremely competitive race. Our model predicts that the race will go into runoff, between incumbent Ken Paxton and one of his challengers, with Paxton in the lead. The model has former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman as the slight favorite to make the runoff against Paxton, however, this race is very competitive and both Land Commissioner George P. Bush and Congressman Louie Gohmert (R-TX) could very well end up in the runoff.
This should be a close race, however, our model gives the edge to incumbent Sid Miller. Miller has the endorsement for former president Donald Trump, and higher name ID in most of the state than his challenger, State Representative James White (R-Hillister).
Our model predicts State Senator Dawn Buckingham (R-Lakeway) will prevail in the GOP primary for Land Commissioner.
Incumbent Glenn Hegar will win the primary easily.
Incumbent Wayne Christian will win the primary, despite the nude pumpjack dance.
Congressional District 2:
Incumbent Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) will win re-election handily. Crenshaw has angered some in the populist wing of his party, however, he is a national figure with a massive campaign war-chest, and none of his challengers have mounted viable campaigns to unseat him.
Congressional District 8:
This crowded field of 11 candidates is heading towards a runoff. Our model predicts a runoff between retired Navy SEAL Morgan Luttrell and Texas Youth Summit Founder Christian Collins. Attorney and former Navy JAG Jonathan Hullihan will finish third. Hullihan has run an admirable campaign with the resources he has, however, it will be very difficult for him to overcome the massive spending by Luttrell and Collins. The model forecasts that Luttrell will receive approximately 40% of the vote, Collins will receive approximately 30% of the vote, and Hullihan will receive approximately 15%. None of the other candidates will receive a significant percentage of the vote. This one better be accurate, because the Texas Citizen Journal‘s editor has a bet with one of the campaign managers and will win two delicious stout ales if this race goes to a runoff.
Congressional District 38
Wesley Hunt will win the GOP nomination, most likely without a runoff. Longtime conservative activist Mark Ramsey will come in second place.
State Representative District 3:
Incumbent State Representative Cecil Bell (R-Magnolia) will win re-election against challenger Kelly McDonald.
State Representative District 12:
Our model predicts a runoff between incumbent State Representative Kyle Kacal (R-College Station) and Huntsville businessman Ben Bius. Redistricting has left Kacal with a significantly different district, making him vulnerable. The population center of the district has shifted to Bius’ home county of Walker. Bius has mounted a serious campaign, even earning the endorsement of Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX).
State Representative District 15:
This is a very competitive race. Our model predicts incumbent State Representative Steve Toth (R-Conroe) will prevail against challenger Maris Blair.
State Representative District 18:
Our model predicts a runoff between incumbent State Representative Ernest Bailes (R-Shepherd) and Hardin ISD board trustee Janis Holt. Even though Bailes is technically the incumbent, his district changed considerably during redistricting, picking up Holt’s home county of Hardin. Bailes has historically garnered mediocre support in the district’s largest county, Liberty. Holt is a serious candidate, and will likely give Bailes a run for his money.
Court of Appeals District 9, Place 2:
This is a very competitive race, however, our model gives the edge to Jay Wright over Stephanie Hall. Wright has been extremely active and has residual name ID from his previous run.
Montgomery County Court at Law 1:
Our model predicts John Hafley will prevail against Brian Cain.
Montgomery County Court at Law 3:
This race between Amy Tucker and Laura Watson is too close to call.
Montgomery County Court at Law 4:
Echo Hutson will win handily.
Montgomery County Clerk:
Brandon Steinmann will win by a significant margin.
Montgomery County Judge:
Incumbent Mark Keough will win the primary without a runoff.
Montgomery County Commissioner Precinct 2:
This is a competitive race. Even though challenger Jennifer Eckhart is viable, our model gives the edge to incumbent Charlie Riley. Riley is well funded and very entrenched. Also, the Texas Patriots PAC’s decision to not get involved will likely hurt Eckhart.
Montgomery County Commissioner Precinct 4:
This race is really too close to call, however, we actually have to give a very slight edge to challenger Matt Gray. Incumbent James Metts has vulnerabilities, and won in a very close race in 2018 against a flawed opponent. Both Gray and Metts have deep roots in the community, and this race appears to be very close.
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