Predictions: 2022 Primary Runoff

On the eve of the 2022 Texas primary runoff election, the Texas Citizen Journal is releasing our election results forecast as is customary. The Texas Citizen Journal has been engineering a prediction model, and thus far, we have called over 95% of past races correctly. Our proprietary, confidential model analyzes each race based on 11 different data points. The results is a highly reliable, unbiased forecast of the election results.

It should be noted that forecasting a win for any given candidate is not to be considered an endorsement from the Texas Citizen Journal. In fact, the candidates our model predicts will win are not always the candidates personally supported by the editor. The election forecast is released the night before Election Day in order to both gather as much data as possible, and to avoid influencing the outcome.

So, with those clarifications in mind, below are the election outcomes predicted by the Texas Citizen Journal’s forecast model:


Attorney General: Ken Paxton

Land Commissioner: Dawn Buckingham

Railroad Commissioner: Wayne Christian

U.S. Congress District 28: Cassy Garcia

State Senator District 24: Pete Flores

House District 12: Ben Bius

House District 52: Caroline Harris

House District 91: Stephanie Klick


Lieutenant Governor: Mike Collier

Attorney General: Rochelle Garza

U.S. Congress District 28: Jessica Cisneros

U.S. Congress District 30 Jasmine Crockett

Other States:

Georgia Senator GOP: Herschel Walker

Georgia Governor GOP: Brian Kemp

Alabama Senator: Runoff between Katie Britt and Mo Brooks. Britt will receive the most votes.

Alabama Governor: Kay Ivey

Arkansas Senator: John Boozman

Arkansas Governor: Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Published by Reagan Reed

Reagan is a journalist and educator from East Texas. He has been involved in numerous campaigns, worked at the Texas Legislature, and covered Texas politics for years as a journalist.

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